This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card with two name fights in Toronto, Canada. We are back to using PPV sized contests on DraftKings this week and there are a few strong GPPs to pursue this week. The most important GPP is a $10 entry with $25,000 to 1st place. These are always my favourite competitions to chase so I’ll be taking some shots at that. Aside from that, I will stick to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will find a fantastic quantity of play in games. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the simplest money game punt of time in $6.8k. The lineup for Fight Goes To Decision is currently -195 and if we are getting 5-rounds from JJ with all the striking volume she puts out then we have a solid flooring there and it doesn’t matter if she loses or wins. At the cost she allows you to pay up for some heavy favorites and if we could get 4 additional spots to win with a ~40-point loss from JJ in our lineup then we will be sitting very pretty in our cash games this weekend.
GPP play of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is presently lined at -495 for this battle. The most probable outcome is that someone in this fight gets hauled out within 15-minutes. With that knock-out probably comes in least one 10-point knock down. If this can be in the 1st round, then you’re currently at 100-points even if it’s merely the 1st punch/kick of the night. At $8.8k that’s more than enough to give you a chance at 1st place at a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this struggle and Manuwa is 38-years old today, so that he can’t have much time at the game left. I think we role with the favorite here and toss into our GPP lineups and wait for the fireworks.
Underdog play of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week due to his wrestling/grappling potential. I think he is a underdog here. Lopez dropped his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is what I’d worry about most with him Brad Katona is most likely the better striker of the two but he’s never knocked anybody out, so I think we have a solid floor here at $7.3k even if this fight does remain standing since I don’t watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is most likely the better wrestler of the two though and I believe he lands multiple takedowns in this battle and can win a choice with a wrestling-heavy game program. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 57% precision, and if he is becoming bogged up on the feet I’m sure he is going to be going for even greater than this. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a good play in all formats and I believe he has a split decision win here since the road underdog.
Fade of the week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a few fighters this week , but the individual I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I don’t think she could win, since she for sure can, and I believe she does. But I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a triumph. I believe we’d require a finish from her in this fight to receive 10x that wages and I believe that is very unlikely to take place. Or, she’ll need FightMetric to rely all of her screams as significant strikes. The maximum Chookagian has scored in a UFC fight up to now in her career is 83 DK points which has been contrary to Irene Aldana who sets a much higher pace than Jessica Eye does. Even though she could get 83-points here afterward that still wouldn’t be sufficient here to put her at the winning lineup at her 8.7k price tag. I think if you’re making 20 or less lineups that Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and when she gets a win it should not hurt much.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown each fight on the card and provide my entire DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick forecasts, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
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