This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Philly on large ESPN. DraftKings has some solid contests and I look forward to pursuing the huge GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $500k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my very first chair into it a couple weeks ago and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at the $30 prize, then I will likely have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic amount of play into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Main Event Stack, Justin Gaethje AND Edson Barboza
While I pile a struggle in cash games I need a minimum of 100 total points. Ideally much more like 150 or even more, but I will take 100-point floor together with all the guaranteed win. With Gaethje fights, we’re pretty much locked into that 100+ and we’ve seen his fights even total over 200 DK points. He is the best style for accruing DraftKings points and if we use Edson too, then we’re guaranteed a win and probably 150+ points. Give me that day. This is how I will be starting my cash lineup and then I will figure out the rest from there. I shall take the loss because we don’t need 6 wins in money games. 1st place and 5th place get paid the same in a 10-man double-up, therefore I am not shooting for first and I’d rather play with it safer with my cash lineups.
GPP drama of this week — Enrique Barzola — $8,200
This isn’t a sneaky play at all but Barzola ought to be a terrific play when he shoots for takedowns. In his 5 UFC wins he’s 36 takedowns. That is exactly what we want on DraftKings. Each takedown is 5-points plus he is able to stand up enough to score 100+ points. If he could score over 100 DK points again here at $8.2k he’s for sure going to acquire somebody $30k. I do expect him to be chalky this week, but he has a lot of scoring possible for me to fade the chalk. I’ll likely be in line with the area on possession with my lineups, maybe overweight.
Underdog play of this week — Michelle Waterson — $7,600
I like Waterson here because she is the fighter who will be searching for takedowns in this fight. I think she can get a number of she could be able to lock a submission if that’s how it is. That is her ceiling in this fight, but I like her more for money games due to her floor. I don’t see KK completing Waterson, therefore I think we get three full rounds of scoring out of her. In a reduction she could put up 30-40 DK points and in money games that is fine. I will use her in GPPs as well, but I don’t think she submits KK. I would guess she puts up about ~80 DK points in a decision win if she is able to receive the victory.
Fade of this week — Sabina Mazo ($8,800)
I am spreading my vulnerability out on most of the favorites this week in GPPs but Mazo is the one I am interested in the very least. I think the only way she outscores her 8.8k salary is by getting another head kick KO. I don’t think that is very probable at all and I feel that a decision win is likely for her. I don’t see her going for almost any takedowns or getting many/any knockdowns, therefore that I do not see how she scores highly in a decision triumph. I will have zero lineups using Mazo this week and when I had been making 100 lineups I would still probably full fade . Hopefully it doesn’t burn me, but she’s my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 63-41for +210.99 (+$21,099) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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