The”fix” is a widespread belief among amateur bettors. Every now and accusations of a repair make it into esteemed magazines and books.
I don’t feel that NFL games are fixed and here’s why. First, within the last 25 years, I have known a number of handicappers, including myself, that have won cash betting the NFL. If the matches were not fair, we could not have won. Handicapping simply could not overcome players that were dumping or shaving things. In order to fix a game, two events would have to occur. The fixer would have to acquire significant players involved, and be in a position to wager enough to conquer the obligations he’s made to the crooked players.
Over the previous 15 years, NFL wages have skyrocketed. Important players, who’d need to be in on the correct for it to operate, make well into the millions each season. They create more from advertisements and endorsements. It would cost a great deal of money for to such players. And you could never correct a match with a single player alone; at least a few would have to purchased.
The fixer would then need to gamble enough on the match to turn a profit on the deal. To be able to bet this large he would need to use hundreds or even thousands of bookmakers.
And bookmakers would definitely notice when they saw this tidal wave of money coming in on one group. As the money came from all over the country, bookmakers are able to lay off the money with different bookmakers. When huge money comes in from apparently nowhere it is known as unnatural money, and bookmakers are almost always suspicious about it. With multiple countless suddenly coming in, suspicion could be rampant.
When bookmakers see unnatural money, they just take games off the board until they know the reason for it. And there is always a fair explanation. Occasionally it’s an accident which comes to light. Sometimes in betting a title likes the team.
Bookmakers, who themselves depend on accurate handicapping, understand that the only way that they can survive is for NFL games to be fair. Coups, like the ones who have tarnished school basketball from time to time, could wipe them out. Bookmakers are the first to turn in anyone who attempted to fix a match.
Believers in repairs also point to referees as possible culprits. Since referees make much less cash than players and exert great control over games, this could be feasible except for two items.
To begin with, the NFL does a very close background check on potential referees. Before anyone is allowed to ref NFL games, a lot of solid sources need to think about him bribe-proof.
Secondly, resources in Las Vegas maintain records on which referees work which games and correlate the data with any big money that comes in on a game. If any suspicious correlation between a specific ref and unnatural money turned upward, it could be reported immediately to the NFL.
Don’t use the correct as an excuse. Get to work on your handicapping.
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