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NASCAR at Dover odds, key stats, bets to consider: Three drivers to fade in Monday’s matchups

There’s no other course in NASCAR very like Dover International Speedway. The 1-mile concrete track in Delaware has high banks along with multiple grooves, similar to Bristol’s half-mile design but with high-banked straightaways.
For handicapping purposes, Dover is a unique track, but results from Bristol should be taken under account, in addition to tracks that have used the 750-horsepower, no-aero duct bundle this season (more on that below).
It doesn’t seem to matter where NASCAR races this past season, Kyle Busch has been one of those top-3 favorites, and he’s the No. 1 power-rated catalyst for oddsmakers. Busch isn’t just leading the Cup Series in victories (three) this year, but his 10 straight top-10 finishes to begin the year has just been achieved by four other drivers, and not since Morgan Shepherd at 1990.
Busch is a whopping 3/1 to win Sunday’s Gander RV 400 (1 p.m. CT, FS1) and hard to fade considering he has 17 top-10s, including 12 top-5s, in his final 28 series starts at Dover.
Update: The Gander RV 400 has been postponed until Monday at 11 a.m. CT on FS1
Chase Elliott, a week’s winner in Talladega, and slumping contender Kyle Larson would be the only two drivers to have their futures chances to win the Cup Series championship corrected this week. Both drivers are worth fading from the matchups (listed below), however.
Elliott is the tougher sell considering he’s the latest winner at the Monster Mile and has five top-5 endings in six string races at Dover, but Chevrolet has been very disappointing this year out of the superspeedways and we love to fade drivers off wins.
Larson, who hasn’t won a race in the Cup level since the 2017 fall race at Richmond, proceeded from 20/1 into 25/1 to win November’s title. Larson opened the season 7/1, but enters this weekend’s race at Dover sitting beyond the playoff standings in 21st. Talladega’s wreck marked the third time in six races Larson has wrecked out of a race. Other outcomes throughout that span include a 12th-place revealing at Fontana, 18th-place at Martinsville and 19th in Bristol.
Dover rules package, recent results
For the fifth time this season, Cup drivers will race using an engine-producing 750-horsepower without a aero ducts. The four previous races were Phoenix, Martinsville, Bristol, and Richmond, with Joe Gibbs Racing winning three and Brad Keselowski top 446 of 500 laps at Martinsville.
Recent Dover winners
2019 autumn: Chase Elliott
2018 spring: Kevin Harvick
2017 autumn: Kyle Busch
2017 spring: Jimmie Johnson
2016 autumn: Martin Truex, Jr..
Curious to win Gander RV 400 in Dover
Opening possibilities Supplied by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH 3/1
Kevin HARVICK 4/1
Brad KESELOWSKI 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 8/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Clint BOWYER 12/1
Kurt BUSCH 14/1
Chase ELLIOTT 12/1
Denny HAMLIN 14/1
Aric ALMIROLA 18/1
Ryan BLANEY 20/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 20/1
Daniel SUAREZ 50/1
Austin DILLON 80/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 100/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
Alex BOWMAN 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
William BYRON 200/1
Matt DIBENEDETTO 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 300/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 300/1
Daniel HEMRIC 300/1
Ryan PREECE 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (all others) 1000/1
Notable NASCAR betting matchups in Dover
Opening possibilities Supplied by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH -125
Kevin HARVICK +105
Denny HAMLIN -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
Kevin HARVICK -140
Brad KESELOWSKI +120
Kurt BUSCH -110
Chase ELLIOTT -110
Brad KESELOWSKI -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Brad KESELOWSKI -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Clint BOWYER -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
NASCAR in Dover stakes to Think about Opening odds provided by Westgate SuperBook
Hamlin (-110) over Elliott
We said fading Elliott above and our pick to beat him is Hamlin, who is enjoying a resurgent season. Hamlin has finished fifth all four races with Sunday’s bundle and contains five top-10 finishes in the previous six Dover races, such as a runner-up past fall.
Truex Jr. (-110) over Keselowski
Truex has five top-10s and four top-5s in the previous six Dover races, leading 387 laps at that time. Truex also finished second at Phoenix with this bundle and won at Richmond after leading a race-high 186 laps. While Keselowski dominated Martinsville, he’s been 19th in Phoenix, 18th in Bristol, and seventh at Richmond.
Daniel Suarez (-110) over Jimmie Johnson
How the mighty have fallen. Seven-time champion Johnson contributes to the website of the latest success, where he’s the game’s all-time winningest driver with 11 victories. However, Johnson is 16th in the series standings and has fought the past two seasons. Suarez calls Dover his favourite track, and he’s averaging a 6.7 complete over four begins. The Mexico native owns the fourth-best typical running position among active drivers in Dover and has the third-most laps at the top 15.

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