NASCAR at Richmond odds, picks 2019: Model says Kyle Larson surprises at Toyota Owners 400

For the first time this season, NASCAR will probably be under the lights when the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at Richmond Raceway. Kyle Busch enters 2019 NASCAR in Richmond as the pioneer at the NASCAR Dragon Energy Cup standings with 361 points. He is searching for his fourth win of the year and the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 odds give him a 9-4 chance to get it starts in fifth place after qualifying. Kevin Harvick had the quickest pace in qualifying at 124.29 MPH, providing him the pole position. His NASCAR in Richmond odds have moved out of 7-1 to 9-2. Martin Truex Jr. (6-1), Joey Logano (8-1) and Brad Keselowski (10-1) are among the other leading contenders in this .75-mile brief course. Before bending in any 2019 Toyota Owners 400 selections of your own, first make certain to check out the NASCAR predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Produced by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The version is off to a solid start in NASCAR this season, calling Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin that a top-four contender from the beginning. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano at its projected top . Additionally, it nailed Busch’s huge win at Bristol last week. Anyone who has followed its selections is far up.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic places like Richmond Raceway are in his blood. His version simulated the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Richmond 2019we could tell you the model is top on Kyle Larson, making a strong run at taking the checkered flag despite going off at 25-1 NASCAR at Richmond odds.

Larson’s average finish at Richmond is 9.7, that’s the third-best among active drivers. He’s finished seventh or better in four of the last five events in Richmond and won the Richmond autumn race in 2017. He’ll start in 14th place after a marginally slower than expected qualifying period of 123.54 MPH. But he posted the fastest lap (121.70 MPH) in the first practice session on Friday, so he’s revealed the speed required to scale the NASCAR in Richmond leaderboard on Saturday evening.

And a massive shocker: Truex Jr., among the top Vegas favorites in 6-1, doesn’t even crack the top five. There are far better values in a loaded 2019 NASCAR at Richmond lineup.

The 39-year-old veteran is sitting at seventh in the standings, but he’s tapered off lately. Truex finished 12th in Texas Motor Speedway after which fought last week in Bristol, ending 17th. In his career, Truex hasn’t fared well at Richmond Raceway either. In fact, he’s finished in the top five just three times in 26 career starts at the monitor.

The version is also targeting two additional drivers using 2019 Toyota Owners 400 chances of 20-1 or even longer to make a serious run at winning everything. Anyone who backs these lengthy shots can hit it big.

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