View the MMABETMACHINE Stakes for UFC FN151 under:
Shane Burgos Free Breakdown
At 28 years old, Burgos is coming into his prime as he takes on the veteran Cub Swanson. He could have a substantial reach advantage of 5.5 inches and is overall a much larger featherweight. In the pocket Burgos is vastly more technical with sharp mixes and harmful power. He’s a good camp but his principal weakness appears to be defense, where he’s left himself exposed to strikes and been hurt in several recent fights.
Swanson is a far more unorthadox and wild fighter and his style looks to fight against more technical competition. He’s on a substantial losing streak where he has looked vulnerable and flat in every struggle. It appears Cub is on a a recession that’s not surprising given his own age in a division where speed is king. It must be noted that many of Cub’s losses have begun to high 10 resistance, but it’s his lack of competitiveness which raise a red flag.
This battle should be entertaining with both guys willing to stand and commerce. In the improbable event that Swanson can reignite his early career performances this could be a close battle, but we expect to see a falling veteran who can’t keep up with the more technical young talent. Back Burgos for the win here, probably from the distance.Brad Katona Breakdown
Katona, winner of TUF and also the hometown fighter is taking about the ever relentless Merab Dvalishvili. Katona has considerably better striking than his opponent and retains a BJJ blackbelt. In his career he has not shown the most effective initial takedown defense but he uses his grappling talents to remain dangerous and make scrambles. Thus far he’s shown a strong ability to contact his feet. Dvalishvili is basic standing, largely throwing his hand to set up level changes. He averages an absurd amount of takedown efforts each fight, compounded by the fact he struggles to keep top position for extended periods.
In this struggle it’s possible Dvalishvili does land takedowns but Katona has plenty of skills to avoid getting stuck on his spine. More time on the feet for Katona means he’ll maintain control, landing hurt and amassing rounds. This should be a close fight where the value lies with the neighborhood underdog.
Bet = Katona at 2.65 (+165) odds. Risk 2 Units to win 3.30 Units.
Nordine Taleb Breakdown
Kyle Prepolec is coming into this fight on short notice and united with the fact he is fighting a division his chances appear slim. Taleb is a well rounded fighter that has a significant advantage in every area of the battle. On the feet he is defensively sound and struggles long with his jab, straight punches and leg kicks to place the distance. Prepolec enjoys to get in close but leaves himself open when entering the pocket. His strikes are slower and he should be open to counters in Taleb. Size will also be a big factor where Prepolec has shown a tendency to escape out in the grappling section by far smaller and not as talented fighters than Taleb. This is likely his safest route to success where he probably dominates to set up a finish. On short notice debut there are simply too many obstacles to conquer and whilst the chances are brief, this looks to be a simple win.
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