This weekend, we have a 13-fight card Milwaukee that will be the previous UFC on FOX card on account of this brand new ESPN deal. We’re back to having smaller prize pools for this particular event but there is still good money to be won. The most important GPP is a $10 entry with $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a wonderful top trophy are always my favourite competitions to pursue so I will be shooting some shots at that. Aside from that, I’ll adhere to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs through the week and that I will find a fantastic amount of play in cash games. Here are a few plays I like for Saturday and my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The most important event is nearly always the best struggle to get into money games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round battle usually makes a lot of sense. I think you can pile the most important event here as well, but I think Kevin Lee is the must drama of both. He’s a -335 favored and -135 ITD so if he wins he’s going to score highly and based on Vegas he has a 77% chance of winning. He also scored 164 DK points in his last fight so not only does he even possess a top ground, but he likely has the maximum ceiling on the card as well. This is where I’ll be starting my cash lineup this week.
GPP play of the week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
Following weigh-ins we saw a lot of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this fight is virtually a PK fight on the betting odds today. Usually when that happens we see the possession on DraftKings follow suit and also the underdog gains ownership due to the value. I believe Gordon’s ownership will go down because of that and that’s what makes him a good GPP play. Gordon strikes at the maximum pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes. He does not even require a finish to score 100+ points and that is the reason why I enjoy him in this place. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he can win then he must score well.
Underdog play of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is $1,200 cheaper than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he is only +115 in comparison to Milstead’s -135 betting line. I love the value we’re getting there, and that I believe Rodriguez wins this battle. I really do expect him to become among the very well-known underdogs on the card, however it is chalk I am prepared to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it is probably going to be so not only could he have the win, but he’d score highly too. I believe if he does win this fight then he ends up on the 1st area lineup and he is my favourite underdog of the week for that reason.
Fade of this week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose since I believe he loses, I’m really picking him to win a Unanimous Decision here. I’m fading him because he is $9.3k and with his fighting style I do not see him becoming over 10x that salary. If I’m making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will probably be in 0 of them. Klose has 3 UFC wins so far in his profession and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in these 3 wins. When he scores around this area again in this particular fight, then pretty much kills your odds at winning a GPP because the other guys in that $9k range likely score higher and probably even over 100-points. This makes Klose my fade of the week.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on each struggle, my personal approaches & recommendations, and my selection prediction for every fight then it is possible to find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 47-28 for +169.81u (+$16,981) since May 19th on Premium Plays. I am also +75.37u the last 7 months!)
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